Wednesday 22 April 2015

Stocks to watch at the moment using my model portfolio since November 2013

Electronic Arts - 114.48% gain. Strong financial health is shown by confidence of management to enter sponsorship deals for major sports. Strong franchises in Rest of World and American Football, Golf, Boxing; namely sports franchises which are the best selling video game on most systems has given it a good reputation with consumers. Their is evidence of self reinforcing brand loyalty. New products are released Annually at Peak times which provide stable revenue streams. Most competitors are independent and cannot compete in terms of naming terms and partnerships with major Sporting organisations, such as FIFA.
However, recent attempts to monetize the games on the IPAD has been poorly implemented, and has reduced the quality of some of their products. There is an untapped market for big budget video games and EA have the scale and resources to take advantage of this.
Mentioned Alongside Sony - 82.13% gain for developing high quality gaming machines which will become more prevalent as younger consumers age and still use the devices when they are adults and when they retire.

Lockheed Martin - 52.37% gain. The US Government currently prioritizes high tech spending in its budget. This is likely to continue as Warfare becomes more technologically advanced. I think their might be a potential risk if their actually was a large scale conventional war involving the USA because you cannot mass produce US$200m dollar advanced Aircraft and Missiles. The likelihood of such a war is limited because of Nuclear Weapons.

Just Eat - 45.61% gain. This is the UK's food amazon. They have first mover advantage, they have brand awareness; they will hopefully have a transformational affect on take away food by increasing the choice and lead to the development of a greater variety of takeaways; for instance being able to order well made home made food from independent chefs. I am very dubious about the valuation of tech companies

United Health Group - 74.69% gain. Not sure what they do but could have something to do with change in USA health insurance market since Obamacare??

Adidas - 27.50% Loss. Everyone in the third world seems to have a Football strip or might want to buy one in the future, do they sell low cost Football strip replicas in the third world, the main leisure activity in the developed world is sport. Huge brand awareness like Nike - 33.67% gain. The brand might be the only thing saving the business for Adidas but provision of only slightly differentiated product recycled on an annual basis will guarantee revenue in the mass fashion segment

EDF - 23.96% Loss. French Power company in a strong bargaining power position due to wasteful competition in what should be a state monopoly, should be able to capture increased margins. Is underperformance due to general market sentiment about the French economy. Industries from the rich North should be able to expand southwards and capture new markets in less efficient national markets.

Glencore - 18.44% Loss.  The core business of facilitation is always profitable, it is the difference between the amount sold and the amount bought always makes money for traders. This does not depend on the actual price of the commodity. Is it able to take advantage of niche markets as asset heavy miners dispose of unwieldy, costly, uncontrollable production facilities. Underperformance is perhaps market sentiment about commodities, financial results will hopefully bring about a rebound.
Cut-throat vision of management will probably make future profitability likely; but this is not real money so who knows if a scandal is unfolding in terms of ethics behind closed doors in terms of human rights abuses by suppliers. A similar company to Archer Daniel Midland - Gain 21.1%, who are performing well on strong sentiment for US Stocks. Improved technology will perhaps increase the scope of market makers to source supply from independent small scale firms, and help large firms source supply from a much wider range and so earn more fees by matching buyer and seller 

Ecobank - 23.55% Gain. I am not a professional but I bought 1.5m shares and it is only worth about US$160k. African bank with good local knowledge. Not sure it is realistic to buy 10m shares for a good sized slice

State Street - 23.18% Gain. Making money on passive retail funds. 401k's are heading to them or Blackrock because they have the scale to follow the Index, alongside Blackrock 24.99%




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