Saturday, 7 May 2016

It was the darkest night in all memory, rivulets of rain drops whipped against the grim trees the wind howling  like an ethereal wolf  devouring a whimpering new-born, as he struggled forwards and onward. He felt as cold as a block of ice. He was soaking wet and shivering. His eyes were downcast as if his soul had deserted him and pure muscle motion made him shudder forward another step. His mind was blank and all he could think of was his hunger.
The lights in the distance were getting closer now. They seemed unwelcoming to strangers like him; unused to companionship and habituated to the wild. Solitude is endured until everything becomes blank. Black as the shadows that hide by the fireside.
Then a shout
"Fair Robert!"
"Fair Robert returns brothers!"
"Eye, eye, Robert come close to the fire, take a seat and a drink!"
"Here, here, eye, some roast mutton, rest now brother, sleep unto the morning comes"
The rain lashed the tarpaulin as he sips from the flask. The whiskey tastes as bitter as arson and as warm as the embers left afterwards. It is not strange for men like these to sit around the fire in the wilderness in silence on nights like these.
The ghosts of men who lived here long ago comfort the forlorn. They vanish into the mist to cling to the rugged hills at mornings first grey light. He must have fallen asleep because he wakes. Some dream has carried him into another's mind on the other side of the world in the night and for a minute he does not remember who or where he is.
His mouth is parched and his breath is rotten, there is no tea and toothpaste for him here. He shakes life into his heavy limb, dropping the last yellow drops into the musk and soil beneath his feet.
A nearby stream its water as clear as polished glass, as cold and refreshing to him as the morning breeze upon his brow.
For a moment his torpor is lifted and he looks up at the brooding hills and sniffs the acidic aroma of the pine forests that cluster upon their haunches.
Even Robert must feel hope in the morning to send him onward. The mind plays tricks on all of the creatures of the Earth. They must carry on breathing just like all the rest.
On a ledge in a clearing up above upon a hill a ram watches him approach, cajoling beside a ramshackle wall made of misshapen boulders built by men who left only ruined houses like relics wrecked and thrown upon the rubbish pile like a mound of pottery buried beside the hills of the eternal empire of Rome.
He hymns to himself 'All creatures Great and Small, the lord God made them all' as he takes aim with his rifle. The butt of his rifle shudders gently next to his chest and the Ram's head explodes an instant later.
 A never ending drizzle floats down from the grey clouds above as he mechanically cuts and gouges portions of flesh. The remnants of the carnage of the corpse wallow in a rusty muddle puddle as red raindrops drip down from his black and bloody hands.

He sits watching the flesh roast. A supersonic screech engulfs the landscape. High above the Bombers are flying there daily mission. Lexington class super fortresses had been bombarding Pittsburgh for almost 300 days now. The Generals had run out of ideas and all they were doing was carpet bombing the ruins. Lord knows they were having as much good effect as when the Germans bombed Stalingrad. They were just turning into a fortress of ruins and tunnels. He remembered the hand to hand combat trying to take some high rise apartment block. They had tried to use helicopters at first but they lost too many. The drones circled high above killing indiscriminately, collaterally soldiers and civilians from both sides. You could be using ropes to climb up to the 23rd floor and the enemy could be using ropes on the other side to sneak down to the 21st floor. He could never be sure who was on his side, only the men is his company. One by one they had been gunned down or failed to return until he was left. Mad-eyed and shivering in the corner in the dark like some junkie on remission. Only god knew his terror as he abseiled down from that ruin, his rappelling seeming like thunder in his ears as he listened to the battle and whispers of men and machinations of diabolical devices of war. Then like a Rat he had sneaked his way from the city out here into the wilderness.
It was a blood-bath, it was chaos, and it was never ending. Two hulking beasts of stags equally matched brutalizing each other to death in a struggle for supremacy. Who even cared anymore? Maybe they were running our of meat for grinder now.
The mutton was ready know and he picks the seared flesh from its skewer and takes a minute to chew savor each exquisite piece, and let the juice and blood drip over his chin.

Now that his belly was full, he rested. He began to walk again. The familiar rhythm was comforting to him. It felt good to release energy. It was directionless wandering like an ancient nomad, or a dumb animal searching for new territory. He followed his feet and his instincts West, North or South every day. The clouds had cleared now and the sun was bright and the air was cool.  He was climbing steadily up a fairly steep incline and as he reached the top he saw the highway beneath him.
The highway was jam packed full of abandoned cars, or so it seemed because all was drearily quiet except the mournful wailing of gulls echoing on breezing zephyrs. The sun glinting of smashed glass, and windows. He could spot the occasional body lying prone beside the edge of the road, or caught in some ungainly position trapped between cars or rammed upon the windscreen like skeletal scarecrows. He descended downwards to investigate further. A morbid human curiosity drawing him towards the wreckage of his own kind when an animal, or a dog, or a wolf, would have recoiled and withdrawn the wild. He looks upon his reflection in the car windows, a familiar face glimpsed, our first egotistical love, comforts him, and his human brain begins to waken. To want more than the wild and the solitude. It makes him sad to see the children's toys, and the suitcases left in the cars, sometimes their contents strewn and buffeted by the wind.

At the side of the road there appears to be a dozen shelters make of junk and tarpaulin. People are sprawled around them. A man notices him, his dark complexion flushing, he starts to wave frantically,
"Hey buddy, Hey buddy, over here!"
He starts to bang a couple of tins together. A few of them stand up and squint at him as he approaches.
"Hombre!, mister!, sir! , how do you do?"
Two of them amble forwards, they are maybe 30 or 40 or 20, unshaven and dressed in modern rags, and offer there dark brown hands for him to shake.
"Make yourself welcome"
They slap his back and show him into the center of the encampment. A low burning fire smolders in the middle. Mostly women slouch round the fire staring listlessly into the distance. Small children sit playing with empty tin cans, a little boy smashes stones together his face dusty and muddy. Their pale faces seem surreal to him as he blinks in the morning light as he mumbles and nods.
A thin women with red hair asks him " Are you hungry mister?
He shakes his head, she asks him " Where you going mister? Where you coming from Hombre?"
He tries to smile but does want to grimace, so he tries to look as kindly as he feels seeing the little ones, and he does not know how to answer her questions.
She does not wait " Well we were on the road from Pittsburgh when we ran out of Petrol. We walked this far. There were tens of thousands of people at first, but we just stopped mister. We were so tired we could not walk any further. Where were we going anyway mister? Nowhere that's where! Just walking our feet down to the bone, just following people to more trouble. The promised land has been defiled mister. God's own country sinned too much. We ate the forbidden fruit mister. Do you believe that bullshit mister? Did you listen at Church? We stayed here, and here we remain until now.
How long was it Candice? I have not even been counting? Have you been marking the days in the calendar John? 6 months now. Living every day of baked beans. They had parachuted into tonnes of baked beans. Just walk down the road for a couple of miles and we has thousands of tins of baked beans. Did you know you could make hooch out of baked beans mister? Do you want some hooch mister? Yeah, mister, you better watch out after we has eaten here, all we do is sit around and fart all day like that movie mister. Are you a Latino Hombre? You speak English mister? Fuck it some of us lived in tents before the war, what's different now? Except there is no TV, maybe its better that we get to talk, but not to Fiona and George over there by the side. You do not want to talk to them, Mister, the simple life is god's life"
A younger red-headed women smiles and says "Don't listen to Mom, she likes to talk" and she giggles coquettishly " Is that a gun you have got there? Or are you just pleased to see me?" She giggles again, this time uncontrollably. The whole mess of them starts to chuckle.
"Welcome mister, the whole fucking world has forgotten about us, and you have just found us!"


Friday, 15 January 2016

Bathed in starlight and luminous lights - beasts falling from the sky upon the virgin earth to feast upon the golden light, and bound through the clouds like effervescent vital trails of light and energy.
To wander and wonder at the firmament sitting upon Mountain Peaks clothed in moonlight, to sit and silently stare for eons upon this wondrous illumination. In deep concentration, an inescapable peace and delight, to forget countless millennial dynastic, to cast it aside a ruin on the horizon, to worship a lie in order to forget the overwhelming subliminal horror.
Beauty is lust and their bodies blended with the night, shadows moving just within sight, an enormous fantastic shout cleaves the heavens and groans; weeping angels cavort in the stratosphere and a million years passes and they are oblivious to everything except feeling. The garden blooms all encompassing over every barren rock at the joy in our eternal heart.
They could move mountains with their minds, juggle mighty boulders and build palaces and houses greater than the sum and the perfection of cold calculating minds, and from rocks they would carve jewels, and from the stars they would steal the light to make the jewels into diamonds bright. A crown was made with a massive diamond with light from the constellation of their ancient homeland and it was placed on a pillar in the middle of the might sea, and this blinding, shining light was called Atlantis.
This earth grinds all things down in the end, the sea will eat the rocks, and the sun will consume the planet and the universe will be black and empty; and Lucifer will declare let their be light! And so men are brought low by time, and these people after a million years became beholden to time and age, and they got used to the light and the blue skies and men made themselves Kings over other men for reasons of ill health of the brain. These Kings desired blood like animals, for these people were now men, and men are animals. So they fought each other and then massacred anybody else they could find, they preferred to fight with their bare hands for the first men were stronger than men today, they had not been worn away by Gravity and chained to the earth and suffocated by air.
Then this great King who had murdered thousands of people and it had fulfilled him more than any other thing saw her come down from upon the hill a noise like he had never heard before, and something down below swelled

Friday, 9 October 2015

Go for a wander through the ancient streets of Edinburgh,the mist gathers, and find yourself leaving this time and entering the past, where it was a ways dark and raining, the murky tenements a ways dripping from the incessant rain, an the pish an aw, and never mind the shite;
Sunshine upon a hill far-away - an is the earth any cleaner than the souls of ancient men who walked upon the soil like god's chosen people?
The hearts of people are complex,the anger of the man who had toothache for 30 years, the misery of the minister because he had the cold for all his living days, and drunks every last one of them. Kings, Shepard's, Archbishops and Serving Girls all sodden with the drink, shitting their pants, murdering at the drop of a hat; lies and half-truths. This mist is a sullen and majestic fog of the hidden an ancient histories.,

In the beginning the Moon arrived in the sky. Except it was not called the moon, it was not a planet, it was a spaceship. You think I am being far-fetched? Look it up on Wikipedia, the moon is hollow. And this is why they covered up the moon landings.
The effect on Earths gravity was catastrophic, the Dinosaurs died. However, it was not millions of years ago, the latest studies have found that Geology is in fact a lot of boulder dash and that the Earth is not 5 miles higher than it was 50 million years agot due to soil compaction, but instead! only thousands of years had passed!
When the dust had settled, the human race left this spaceship and landed on the virgin Earth for the first time ever!
The human race is from a Cajillion miles away, the center of its civilization is in the Sirius constellation, which is why the Pyramids were built as a map, alas! Things were not so simple for these first people. They had been in space for thousands of years and when they landed they looked at the Sun it completely altered there perception of the Earth and they began to hallucinate really heavily. The first humans were long lived and some could fly, and they slept upon mountain tops, or swam to the bottom of the sea, but they forgot most things, except some who built the Pyramids and the Sphinx in Egypt, and the other who gathered in Ancient Scotland next to a Granite Mountain in Edinburgh and carved a mightier, and greater sphinx . Telt to do so by the first child, who had his first earth dream, as a harbinger of the immensity of the time which the future represents. Over the years the wind and the rain has weather has turned this Sphinx into Arthur's seat.
King Arthur threw his sword into the lake near Arthur's Seat in case the Brutal Saxons demean his Wife and Daughters, and cheat his fair laws with enforcement of Dominion, but there were not lands in those times, no eerie bureaucrat had drawn a line across the map, and demanding tax and blood on tap for ever since and ever more in debt unto eternity to a faceless super rich elite. We go too far ahead! I Digress!
When Atlantis was inundated, destroyed, washed unto sand, the waves were so vast they knocked the Sphinx's nose off in Egypt, they also flooded Crete. Princess Scotia the Ginger was forced to flee because a superstitious sect of Easterners saw this as a bad omen, they burned a dead goat and saw messages from their god in the Smoke. All the Ginger people had to get on Boats and go to Ireland. The King of Scotland decided to swim to Ireland one morning, and he saw Scotia bathing in the river, ravishing, and they were soon married as was the fashion of these ancient time, doused in water and dirt, as the flowers are blown up the wind in the greenest field on Earth.
And soon the had children, and they built a city where Edinburgh is now and they called it Jerusalem. Perhaps you have heard of this place in the Bible and have assumed that Jerusalem is in Israel. The Medieval Jerusalem is in Israel was stolen by the near eastern superstitious types. The Port of Joppa in Edinburgh is still called Joppa in modern day Scotland. These children were the Kings of Scotland and from them was King Arthur, Romulus, Leonidas and the Royal McGregor's - true loyalists until the end to the end.
 Jesus was born in Edinburgh and was crucified and God was so angry he scrubbed the minds of all the people, and changed the name of Edinburgh from Jerusalem to Edinburgh, and Jesus was buried at the site of Roslyn Chapel in modern day Edinburgh. Jesus's son William Alexander Merovingian Plantagenet decreed that a church should be built there to commemorate this forever more. He alone knew the truth of this  but the Devil killed him with a poison dart and all would have forgot! Except!
In the 19th Century an adventurer of the mind entered a trance and made contact with the Ether and hidden away in the secret Library of Edinburgh University when studying something dreadfully boring I stumbled upon these fragments.
The Moon child was born in his thoughts to project power against evil forces who use ritualistic human sacrifice calibrated with an ancient numerical language, and arcane astrology to fulfill their superstitious urges.

Tuesday, 28 April 2015

Thursday, 23 April 2015

Steel Authority of India - 22.43% gain, Tata Steel - 10.41% gain and Tata Motors - 30.57% gain. I think the most potential for growth is in India. I think their is scope for massive investment in power and transport infrastructure, and in housing. Also a growing lower middle class who will want affordable motor vehicles. Surely it possible to build basic cars with basic engines but with comfort for $500. Would electrical engines be cheaper to make and also lower pollution. Labour has very low levels of bargaining power in the economy so wages are low and this lowers consumption, encourages the informal economy from which no tax can be raised; India does not have the financial muscle and foreign exchange reserves of China to fund a construction boom, however, there is a lot of cheap available labour to lower the cost of building it.

National Grid - 5.6% Loss. I think it is opportunistic buy a stake in what should be a state monopoly. A defensive stock because its revenue it guaranteed. The market has probably valued it correctly, but it should appreciate with the rest of the market on the back of increasing savings caused by a demographic bulges in the third age group

Netflix - 47.85% Gain. I am always thinking of selling this. Producers could have the ability to withhold supply if they started a rival, like Tidal in music to Spotify. However, there is no competitor at the moment and I hope I will be able to choose the correct moment to sell. I will look out for signals of sentiment within the market. If Disney offered their own subscription service could they out-bid Nertflix for content, or in the bidding process drive up costs and eat into margin or they will have to increase subscription fees and this will test the elasticity of demand for a product that is almost a ubiquitous unconscious payment every month; would an increase in price increase the visibility of this charge and the consumer might question its value.  

Starbucks - 24.16% gain. I think it is an easily exportable model and it has not penetrated India, China or Africa to a great extent. I think a careful approach to the strictness of imposing a corporate culture is less important new revenue streams and growth. Coca-Cola is the example to follow in using a low tech supply chain, and low tech product to infiltrate low tech markets.



Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Stocks to watch at the moment using my model portfolio since November 2013

Electronic Arts - 114.48% gain. Strong financial health is shown by confidence of management to enter sponsorship deals for major sports. Strong franchises in Rest of World and American Football, Golf, Boxing; namely sports franchises which are the best selling video game on most systems has given it a good reputation with consumers. Their is evidence of self reinforcing brand loyalty. New products are released Annually at Peak times which provide stable revenue streams. Most competitors are independent and cannot compete in terms of naming terms and partnerships with major Sporting organisations, such as FIFA.
However, recent attempts to monetize the games on the IPAD has been poorly implemented, and has reduced the quality of some of their products. There is an untapped market for big budget video games and EA have the scale and resources to take advantage of this.
Mentioned Alongside Sony - 82.13% gain for developing high quality gaming machines which will become more prevalent as younger consumers age and still use the devices when they are adults and when they retire.

Lockheed Martin - 52.37% gain. The US Government currently prioritizes high tech spending in its budget. This is likely to continue as Warfare becomes more technologically advanced. I think their might be a potential risk if their actually was a large scale conventional war involving the USA because you cannot mass produce US$200m dollar advanced Aircraft and Missiles. The likelihood of such a war is limited because of Nuclear Weapons.

Just Eat - 45.61% gain. This is the UK's food amazon. They have first mover advantage, they have brand awareness; they will hopefully have a transformational affect on take away food by increasing the choice and lead to the development of a greater variety of takeaways; for instance being able to order well made home made food from independent chefs. I am very dubious about the valuation of tech companies

United Health Group - 74.69% gain. Not sure what they do but could have something to do with change in USA health insurance market since Obamacare??

Adidas - 27.50% Loss. Everyone in the third world seems to have a Football strip or might want to buy one in the future, do they sell low cost Football strip replicas in the third world, the main leisure activity in the developed world is sport. Huge brand awareness like Nike - 33.67% gain. The brand might be the only thing saving the business for Adidas but provision of only slightly differentiated product recycled on an annual basis will guarantee revenue in the mass fashion segment

EDF - 23.96% Loss. French Power company in a strong bargaining power position due to wasteful competition in what should be a state monopoly, should be able to capture increased margins. Is underperformance due to general market sentiment about the French economy. Industries from the rich North should be able to expand southwards and capture new markets in less efficient national markets.

Glencore - 18.44% Loss.  The core business of facilitation is always profitable, it is the difference between the amount sold and the amount bought always makes money for traders. This does not depend on the actual price of the commodity. Is it able to take advantage of niche markets as asset heavy miners dispose of unwieldy, costly, uncontrollable production facilities. Underperformance is perhaps market sentiment about commodities, financial results will hopefully bring about a rebound.
Cut-throat vision of management will probably make future profitability likely; but this is not real money so who knows if a scandal is unfolding in terms of ethics behind closed doors in terms of human rights abuses by suppliers. A similar company to Archer Daniel Midland - Gain 21.1%, who are performing well on strong sentiment for US Stocks. Improved technology will perhaps increase the scope of market makers to source supply from independent small scale firms, and help large firms source supply from a much wider range and so earn more fees by matching buyer and seller 

Ecobank - 23.55% Gain. I am not a professional but I bought 1.5m shares and it is only worth about US$160k. African bank with good local knowledge. Not sure it is realistic to buy 10m shares for a good sized slice

State Street - 23.18% Gain. Making money on passive retail funds. 401k's are heading to them or Blackrock because they have the scale to follow the Index, alongside Blackrock 24.99%




Thursday, 16 April 2015

It is a simple fact that you cannot have economic growth without increased Energy use. Increasing Energy use means more CO2 in the atmosphere and the climate does seem to be changing (I think Climate models are like economic models; they tend towards inherent bias and innumerable to infinity false positives because of assumptions that are spurious at best; but my opinion does not matter in the slightest.)
The orthodox approach to climate change is to use less Energy,  or to exterminate the worldwide bovine population, or to use inefficient, expensive, unreliable renewable Energy instead. I think their is a great future for renewable energy; is it possible to wind farms in the middle of the Atlantic? is it possible to go to the Moon? If Hanergy Energy have found a way of embedding an efficient solar panel in a pane of glass, then I think every building and every car should have one. This technology will not develop quickly, vast amounts of resources and investment is required. National Governments have squabbled about cutting carbon emissions and have been unable to agree any measures that are able to have an effect in reducing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, Would they be willing to pool resources to develop technology for more efficient renewable Energy? Would the Bill Gates Foundation, or Mark Zuckerberg, or some other benevolent firm be willing to pioneer a project like building windfarms deep out to sea in the cape of good hope. Would it make sense to build solar panels and place them in the entirety of all the Deserts in the World? This would have more affect than trying to persuade national governments to slow Economic growth by using less Energy. Environmental groups would probably protest if some one did try and build a massive platform in the middle of the sea to put wind turbines on, but most people do not want their living standards to go backwards in the short-term by being austere with consumption and energy.
I am not an Engineer, but I think devices shaped like ship's Sails would capture wind more effectively than a huge metal windmill. Is it possible to design a device made from super light material which could be flown like a kite in order to capture high velocity, high altitude  winds and use it to generate energy? Even a device on the sea and on land shaped like a sail; would seem in layman's terms to be more efficient than the current, some might say,  not aerodynamic, obtrusive design.
Drones with effective solar panels could be used above the cloud line to capture Solar Electricity at high altitude, and then store it using effective batteries and deliver it when needed to power stations. Perhaps someone more qualified needs to come up with realistic ideas, but my point is that they should be discussing new technology, funding new ideas, on a much larger scale using international national government funding, alongside much needed private philanthropic funding. This is the first priority of business; it would need a conference lasting a hundred years for all the nations of the world to agree to stop using so much energy; the problem is Carbon, not Energy, provision of Energy is required for the international ending of poverty and free energy provided by a State run Monopoly is the most effective to way to run it.
This will not happen overnight, there needs to be a short-term solution; Deforestation was caused by human development in the middle ages, and urbanisation provides the opportunity for re-forestation Could we all plant trees.  There is a lot of waste ground in cities where plants and trees could be grown, trees and plants could be grown on buildings, on roofs, beside the highway if all cars had to run on electrical power by law. Could those who live on state handouts be employed planting and tending these trees. Governments could subsidise farmers to grow trees? This would not be enough to absorb and so reduce CO2 levels unless it was implemented on a world wide scale; It is unlikely that flowers and trees would bloom on the roofs of the houses in Beijing because of the incessant smog; planting CO2 absorbing trees and plants would probably not be enough to have an impact reducing CO2 levels, unless?